Trump hit another issue: 6 takeaways from a big primary night

How to talk to Trump and live to tell the story

Two weeks later Donald Trump was humiliated in Georgia’s primariesThe low profile of Republicans on Tuesday puts an excellent point on the limits of Trump’s influence over the GOP.

It’s even bigger, of course. But five of the 35 House Republicans voted to form a two-party committee to investigate the January 6 riots in Capitol. They all seem to have survived another day of fighting.

In Mississippi, Delegate Michael Guest overtook one Trumpian rival, Michael Cassidy. Attack the guest directly For voting for the Commission. With 89 percent of the vote expected, he led the run-off on June 28. In California, it will soon be possible to see how David Valadao, the representative who persuaded Trump to vote for both the dismissal and the January 6 commission, will act.

For the most part, Republicans past Trump have not been affected by their betrayal.

In Iowa, Delegate Marianette Miller-Meeks ran without a match. In South Dakota, Rep. Dusty Johnson dropped his tough challenger Toffee Howard. In New Jersey, Trump once sought to promote a primary challenge to Representative Chris Smith, a senior incumbent who overcame the challenge of Republican podcast presenter Mike Crispy with the support of Roger Stone. [One inspired headline from the state on Tuesday night read in part, “Crispi creamed by Smith.”]

It was a little better for Trump beyond House Five. In South Dakota, the Senate angered Trump when he said his attempt to thwart the 2020 election would “go down like a shot dog.” John Dune, who also challenged him to hit more-runs.

“[Thune’s] A South Dakota Republican who is well acquainted with the Dune and Johnson campaigns said that it was more important than “getting out of Florida.”

Speaking on Tuesday about Trump’s influence in the party, Bob Heckman, a Republican adviser who has served on nine presidential campaigns, said, “I think the arbitral tribunal is out now, not before.”

“If I were a candidate, I would get Trump’s approval rather than oppose me, but there are many other factors beyond that,” said Heckman, a close friend of Smith’s. “Previously, it was felt that Trump could kill you as a deal, but now it’s not clear.”

The Democrats have a voting problem

Democrats began to worry last week about their voting problem in California, which was trailing by several million votes in retiring as governor last year.

On the first day it was even worse. According to Political Data Inc., a California-based political data organization, about 3.3. Millions of votes were withdrawn in the early hours of Tuesday, much lower than the same point last year.

Primary voting is traditional The general election did not accurately predict the turnout. One explanation for the primary lack of interest on Tuesday was that races in California were too boring to watch.

But California is not a small state for Democrats. It is a bastion of progressiveism that has bent backwards to enact policies that make it easier for people to vote. Democrats are already facing a dark midterm election landscape nationally, and any signs of indifference are worrying.

California-based Doug Herman, who was a leading mail strategist for Barack Obama’s 2008 and 2012 campaigns, said it was “primarily a matter of voting for the recession.” [turnout] Is it low? “

“Of course the red flag.”

A brushback for liberal lawyers

It wasn’t too long ago that progressive lawyers were the hottest thing on the left.

Larry Krosner in Philadelphia, George Gascon in Los Angeles and Kim Fox in Cook County. The progressives wanted to change the criminal justice system, and they targeted district attorney races to do so.

But as a sign of how quickly politics is changing around criminal justice this year, the movement was a huge success on Tuesday. Sasa Poutin, one of the most progressive enclaves in the country, in San Francisco Recalled – Revenue fell by more than 20 percentage points.

Bowdin, a former deputy public defender, became a leader in criminal justice reform efforts across the country. But in the midst of a nationwide rise in violent crime, there were even enough voters in San Francisco.

The movement is far from dead. Raல்l Torres, Bernalillo County District Attorney in New Mexico, Beneficiary in 2016 of mega donor George Soros’ initiative to promote reform-minded lawyersHe won Tuesday for the state attorney general.

San Francisco is not going to become less democratic after Bowden’s ouster. London Breit, the city’s Democrat mayor, is unlikely to appoint a law-and-order Republican to the seat.

But since it became clear that Boudin was leaving, progressives in California and elsewhere have been frowning. His defeat will embolden critics of criminal justice reform, not only among Republicans but also among moderate Democrats.

Flexibility of Christie Nome

The most interesting thing about the 2024 presidential election is that none of the primaries that took place on Tuesday took place in Iowa, the country’s first Caucasus state. Rather, it is what Christie Nome did in a state of South Dakota.

Noem, the governor of South Dakota and a potential presidential or vice presidential candidate, was never in real danger of losing the re-election. But to say that she had one Turbulent first term There will be a downside. Nome angered the Conservatives Fuss over the law Transgender and girls should be banned from playing sports, and he frustrated them again when he delayed a highly politicized review of the state’s social research standards. Then there was the controversy surrounding Cory Lewandowski Counsel Nom relaxed Following the accusation he made unwanted sexual advances to a woman at a charity event last year.

Noamin’s victory in the state’s Republican governor’s primary election was a show of strength, and he needed to be given a restoration of something.

Her opposition was somewhat. Steve Hoggart, the Republican state representative who ran against the disease from the right and former speaker of the state legislature, was poorly funded. The election, Tuesday, was held by a longtime Republican activist in the state, who said it was slightly more than a “referendum or opposition-type referendum.”

But Noam broke it, winning 76 percent of the vote with 96 percent expected Almost defeated in the governor election In 2018, he is expected to travel in November.

Choose your own political adventure

Political parties have a rich tradition of prioritizing each other, especially when they see an opportunity to field a candidate that they believe can be destroyed in the fall. Josh Shapiro, Democratic nominee for governor of Pennsylvania, This year, he tried to do it Aired an ad Designed to elevate Republican Doug Mastriano to the top spot.

But sporting potential in California is at another level, non-partisan, thanks to two key votes that advanced to the November general election.

Two Republicans, representative of Orange County. Young Kim and David Valdao of the Central Valley entered Tuesday in danger of leaving the general election altogether – Democrats did their best for the Republicans, who are considered the weakest candidates.

In the Valadao race, the House Majority PAC, which is affiliated with the Democratic leadership, has spent money to elevate Chris Mathis. In Orange County, Democrat Asif Mahmood Without focusing on Kim, he released ads centering on another Republican, Greg Roths..

The attempt may be futile. In early earnings, both Valadao and Kim were in the lead. But it was still early in California, and if the incumbent fails to give the Democrats the potential benefit – a weaker candidate in the two districts held by Joe Biden in 2020 – it is worth the cost.

Dangerous flow of carousel

Billionaire developer Rick Caruso led Representative Karen Boss in the race for the Los Angeles mayoral race, with both advancing to the November runoff.

But Caruso may regret not being able to finish the pass in the primary. If he had won the majority of votes, he would have won completely.

On the contrary, the bass has life. When the Associated Press called for the race at 10pm, Caruso ran ahead of him by only about 3 percentage points, 41 per cent to 38 per cent, despite spending more than $ 37 million on his personal fortune.

In the country’s second largest city, voters were impressed by his promises to crack down on crime and homelessness. But the run-off could be tricky for Caruso. Boss is a prominent Democrat with a long history of activity in the city. Without other progressive candidates and without votes from the BJP, Caruso will have fierce competition.

Laura Corte contributed to this report.