Milton was a Category 1 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico late Sunday Eastern time, the National Hurricane Center said in its latest report. Advice.
The tornado had sustained winds of 90 miles per hour.
All times are east on the map. By The New York Times
Where is flooding likely?
Storm surge is ocean water pushed ashore by storm winds and has historically been a major cause of deaths from hurricanes. If the surge occurs during high tides, it can have far-reaching consequences.
Places:
Where does it rain?
Flash flooding can occur both inland and further away from the storm’s center. Even weak storms can produce heavy rainfall that can flood low-lying areas.
Source: National Weather Service By The New York Times
What does the storm look like from above?
Satellite images can help determine the strength, size and timing of storms. The stronger a storm becomes, the more likely it is to develop an eye in the center. When the eye looks symmetrical, it means the storm hasn’t experienced anything to weaken.
Milton will be the 13th storm to form in the Atlantic in 2024.
At the end of May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted there would be 17 to 25 named storms this year, more than normal.
This season follows a more active year, with 20 named storms — including the earliest storm that was later given the official name of “unnamed.” It was the eighth year in a row that the 14 named storms exceeded the average. Only one hurricane, Italia, made landfall in the United States.
In general, the El Niño pattern that prevailed last season suppressed hurricanes and reduced the number of storms in a season. But in 2023, warmer ocean temperatures in the Atlantic blunted El Niño’s regular storm-suppressing effect.
The warm ocean temperatures that fueled last year’s season returned even warmer early this season, raising forecasters’ hopes for more storms this year. Rising sea surface temperatures will strengthen storms faster than usual.
To make matters worse, last year’s El Niño pattern is also waning, often creating conditions more suitable for storms to form and intensify.
Hurricanes need a calm environment to develop, and a strong El Niño in the Atlantic increases wind speed — a change in wind speed and/or direction with height — that disrupts a storm’s ability to coalesce. Without El Niño this year, the clouds would tower to the heights necessary to sustain a powerful hurricane.
Sources and References
Monitoring map Observational data from the National Hurricane Center. The graph shows at least 5 percent probabilities. The forecast is up to five days, starting up to three hours before the storm is reported to reach its latest location. Wind speed probability data are not available north of 60.25 degrees north latitude.
Air arrival schedule Arrival times are generated from a New York Times analysis of National Hurricane Center data. Geographic locations use data from the US Census Bureau and Natural Earth. Time zones are based on Google. The table shows the predicted arrival times for specific cities where wind gusts of 58 mph or greater are likely. If damaging winds reach a location, they have no more than a 10 percent chance of arriving before a “reasonably early” time and no more than a 50 percent chance of arriving before the “most likely” time.
Radar map Radar images were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration via Iowa State University. These mosaics are created by combining the individual radar stations that comprise the NEXRAD network.
Storm surge map Storm surge data from the National Hurricane Center. Forecasts include only the United States Gulf and Atlantic coasts, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Actual flood prone areas may differ from the areas shown on this map. This map calculates tides, but not tides, and not floods caused by rainfall. The map also includes intertidal areas, which are usually flooded during regular high tides.
Satellite map Images from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and Japan Meteorological Agency via Cooperative Institute for Atmospheric Research.
Precipitation Map Data for multi-day forecasts or observed total precipitation were obtained from the National Weather Service. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s 1-day forecast.
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