- Hurricane, storm surge and tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of Florida.
- Hurricane Helen is likely to form in the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday.
- A hurricane is likely to make landfall on Florida’s Gulf Coast Thursday night.
- Hurricanes can be strong and large enough to make landfall with life-threatening storm surge, damaging winds and flooding rains.
- Strong inland winds and heavy rain will push parts of the south well inland by Friday.
Tropical Storm Helene is forecast to strengthen into a major, dangerous hurricane before hitting Florida’s Gulf Coast Thursday night, then spreading its winds and rain well inland to the southeastern United States.
Where is it now: Helen, the eighth storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, was centered about 200 miles east-southeast of Cozumel, Mexico late Tuesday. Based on that data From the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission, it found a well-defined low-level circulation with sufficiently strong flight level winds to merit an upgrade.
For now, most of Helen’s thunderstorms are generally east of the center. But more thunderstorms are starting to move closer to the center, a sign that the system is intensifying.
(Also: Map Tracker | Recent evacuations, arrangements)
Watches and warnings are in effect: Tropical warnings have been issued for parts of the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba and Florida.
This means tropical storm or hurricane conditions are expected (warnings) or possible (watches) in these areas within the next 36-48 hours.
Storm surge warnings are also practiced along much of Florida’s Gulf Coast.
Interests near the Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the forecast closely Hurricane plans Willing to accept any advice from local emergency managers.
Here is the timeline:
– tuesday: Helen will gradually approach Cancun, Cozumel and western Cuba. Heavy rain, strong winds and storm flooding are expected in those areas. Parts of western Cuba could see up to 12 inches of rain, which could lead to flash flooding.
– Wednesday: Helen’s center is expected to approach Cancun and Cozumel as a hurricane, with the potential for high winds, flash flooding and heavy rain. Heavy rain and strong winds will still hammer parts of western Cuba. It then enters the southern Gulf of Mexico, intensifying and growing in size. Some high surf and outer rainbands may reach parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast from the Keys to the Panhandle.
– Thursday: Helen is expected to reach its peak intensity in the eastern Gulf as a major hurricane Thursday evening along the Florida Gulf Coast. Although computer forecast models suggest landfall is more likely in Florida’s Big Bend region, hurricane impacts (surge, wind, rain) often occur farther from the center, especially in larger storms. These track forecasts are also subject to change. Helen’s center changes in its early stages. Therefore, everyone near the Florida Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the forecast for changes in the coming days.
– Friday: Helene will quickly move northward through the southeast toward the southern Appalachians with strong winds, inland flooding, and isolated tornadoes.
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Current storm status and projected track
(The red-shaded area represents the possible path of the tropical cyclone’s center. It should be noted that the impacts of any tropical cyclone (especially heavy rain, high tides, coastal flooding, winds) usually extend beyond its forecast path.
How strong can it be: A major cyclone is forecast to intensify ahead of landfall in Helen Gulf.
Because heat content is a favorable ingredient for intensification, the map below shows an abundance of deep, warm water in parts of the Loop Current in the northwest Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. In fact, there is a degree of heat in the Gulf of Mexico High levels are recorded at this time of the yearAccording to Brian McNoldy, a tropical scientist at the University of Miami.
Therefore, Helen is likely to rapidly intensify over the eastern Gulf of Mexico for a period beginning Wednesday.
But another factor to consider is wind shear. Wind shear typically limits or weakens tropical storms and hurricanes by tilting their circulation or throwing more thunderstorms away from its center.
Forecast models are struggling to predict how much and how soon wind shear might affect Helen in the northeastern Gulf. If the wind shear comes too late, it won’t have much of an impact on an already strong, large hurricane. But if it comes earlier, it will help reduce Helen’s extreme peak.
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American influences
Helen is forecast to be not only a hurricane, but also a major one, and could move quickly as it nears the coast and pushes well inland. As we discussed in the previous section, it affects the scope and intensity of Helen’s impacts.
Storm surge
The National Hurricane Center’s storm surge forecast is shown in the map below. As you can see, much of Florida’s Gulf Coast is expected to see at least some storm surge flooding, including areas as far south as the Keys.
The highest storm surge is expected east of where Helen’s center makes landfall. For now, it appears to be Florida’s Big Bend, Appalachian Bay and the Nature Coast. Some flash flooding may be up 10 feet above ground level In these areas, especially if the peak tide comes at high tide. to Cedar KeyThis could be a record storm surge and could easily be several feet higher than Hurricane Italia’s peak in August 2023 (6.84 feet).
Due to Helen’s expected high winds, significant storm flooding is expected in the Tampa-St. The Pete-Sarasota metro areas will experience more than what Hurricane Italia experienced a year ago.
If you live near the coast, know your evacuation zone and heed any advice or orders from local emergency management.
Storm surge forecast
(The combination of dangerous storm surge and tides can inundate dry areas near the coast by moving them inland from the coast.)
wind
As mentioned earlier, Helen will be a large and fast-moving storm in the Gulf as it plows inland. This means that the area of strong winds is greater than usual.
Hurricane-force winds are unlikely in areas covered by hurricane warnings along Florida’s Gulf Coast, but these high winds may push inland into parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia Thursday night. Downed trees and power outages are likely to be widespread in these areas, and some structural damage is also possible.
Tropical storm-force winds will quickly move up the coast of West Florida in the areas shown below Thursday into Thursday night. These tropical storm-force winds may then push inland over much of Georgia and parts of the Carolinas Thursday night into Friday. There is a possibility of power outage due to falling of some trees in these areas.
Precipitation
Helen will typically produce heavy rain not only near the coast east of its track, but also inland as far southeast as the Ohio Valley.
Southeastern areas are expected to see more rain from Thursday to Friday, but heavy rain is likely from Wednesday onwards. Locally heavy rain will continue through Saturday in the Ohio Valley, Appalachians and parts of Florida.
Widespread 4-inch-plus rainfall is expected from Florida’s Gulf Coast north into Kentucky, West Virginia, and Virginia. Up to 12 inches of rain is possible in parts of the Florida Panhandle and southern Appalachians.
This rain can lead to flash floods, especially when combined with storm surge and high terrain. This moist, wet ground will make it easier for Helen’s winds to topple trees.
Rain view
(Although not all of the precipitation shown above is from this tropical system, it should be interpreted as a broad overview of where the heaviest precipitation occurs. Higher amounts may occur in areas with thunderstorms or thunderstorms lasting more than a few hours. .)
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and freak weather are his favorite topics. Approach him X (formerly Twitter), texts, Facebook And Bluesky.
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